Whether you stake online or you stake in a betting shop, there are some basic things that you must understand.
One of which is that you are not staking against the opposing team but against a bookmaker.
Why You Must Not Use Emotions To Analyse Betting Odds.
Bookmakers defines the odds of football matches following a thorough analysis of statistics accumulated and the context of the football match.
In other words, in addition to the margin of safety guaranteed from the odds, bookmakers also earn money from wrong mistakes by bettors. One of which is emotion which is usually a big mistake from rookies when betting.
This is usually the case with most bettors as generally, a supporter will bet on a victory for his team even if he thinks that it is weaker than its opponents.
The best way to escape this trap is to never bet on his favorite football clubs: this is the basic advice that any bettor wishing to earn money through football betting should follow.
In this article, we would be highlighting how to read odds to give you informed betting on football matches. To do this we will be talking about some things that every bettor should do before concluding on their bets.
Analyze Statistics To Know Who To Bet On Before The Match
The crucial analysis for any game is done a day before the kickoff so that you won’t be under pressure. This will allow you to make informed decisions regarding the football match.
Your analysis will have to be carefully broken down and this will determine the chances of winning your bet. Take for example a league game between Team A and Team B
Suppose you put your football bet on Team A’s victory.
- For this to happen, team A must score more goals than team B, which means that:
- Team A will create enough opportunities to score at least one goal
- Team A will be efficient, fit and have certain advantages such as setpieces on its opponent.
- Team B will not score or if it scores, team A will have enough firepower to score more goals.
- This also implies that the attack of team A is better than the defense of team B or team A defense is better than team B attack
Using this form of reasoning leads us to make a prognosis that makes it clearer to give a solid backing to your likely betting choice. In addition understanding, the most likely scenario also gives you the keys to predicting the most likely event that will occur increasing your chances of winning the bet.
To understand these scenarios, you will need to identify the data:
- Differences between teams
What are the teams involved is it a well-financed team against a minnow or a good attack against a bad defense.
- Form table
In the last five games, how many wins/draws/losses have both side gotten.
- Timing of the match
Is this a small cup tie between one of the teams vying for a late push for the league title. A league game after a tough Champions League game could be problematic for the favoured side.
- Past History Of Meetings
How often does the away team win or draw against the home side.
- Players form
Is one of the teams missing their star player or a goal scorer returning ahead of the game? Also, the state of the pitch could mean that the technical side could have problems playing their free-flowing game.
Remember: The Question To Ask Is Not “Who To Bet On? But “How To Beat The Bookmaker?
To beat the bookmaker, you will have to bet on games whose odds are over valued bets that the bookmakers think are riskier than they actually are.
To identify these interesting football bets, you will have to give them your own odds which you obtained thanks to your analysis and estimate it to be the real. After this initial stage, you compare what you have with that of the bookmaker.
Experienced bookmakers can use their intuition to evaluate the value of an odd for a particular match.
However, for a beginner, it is important that you have a method for evaluating these odds. With time your experience and finesse in analyzing would allow you to improve to the point of intuition.
Let’s try to define the good odds for this match Arsenal and Chelsea.
For that, let’s try to calculate what is the percentage of chances that Arsenal win at home against Chelsea in an end of season league match? We must first look at the statistics : (these figures are fictitious and serve as an example)
- Home victories of Arsenal during the season 80%
- Away defeats from Chelsea during the season 60%
- Arsenal victories against Chelsea over the last 3 years 70%
The form of the moment of the two teams (the statistical trend):
- Arsenal victories in the last 5 previous matches 80%
- Chelsea losses in the last 5 previous matches 50%
You average these percentages. For simplicity we are not going to do statistical weighting.
- (80 + 60 + 70 + 80 + 50) / 5 = 68% chance that Arsenal win.
To convert the given percentage into an odd. Divide 1 by the percentage:
- 1 / 0.68 = 1.47 for an Arsenal victory
You will, therefore, bet on Arsenal’s win only if the odds are 1.47 or higher.
Imagine that a bookmaker offers you a rating of 1.3. This means that he estimates at 1 / 1.3 = 76%, the odds that Arsenal has to win his match.
Since this is above our estimate, the odds are undervalued and the bet is not worth it. However, if the bookie offers to 1.5, the bet starts to be interesting.
This is a classical way of reading odds and using it to your advantage to beat the bookies. Read this article several times to grasp the concept and apply it to your betting system.